Thursday Edition: CR Debacle

Republican-controlled House leadership had agreed on a stopgap measure to avert a government shutdown…until an online pressure campaign led by people like Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy happened. (ABC News)

What was in the initial package: The major provisions of the 1,500 page continuing resolution focused on disaster aid, economic relief and health reform.

• Disaster funding: A total of $110 billion in disaster funding, including $29 billion in FEMA relief funding and $31 billion in economic assistance and disaster relief for farmers.

• Baltimore bridge rebuilding: The Federal government committed to covering the entire cost of rebuilding the Francis Scott Key Bridge, with eventual reimbursement through insurance and litigation.

• Pay raises for members of Congress: Automatic cost of living adjustments for lawmakers would raise salaries, which have sat at $174,000/year since 2009.

• Health policy reform: The bill extends telehealth flexibility under Medicare, includes a five-year reauthorization for opioid crisis programs, implements measures to prevent pandemics and requires pharmacy benefit managers to disclose drug spending and pass on full rebates.

The backlash: Republicans and online commenters criticized Speaker Mike Johnson for the package’s big ticket add-ons, saying they wanted a “clean” continuing resolution free of pork and policy attachments.

• Rep. Chip Roy of Texas: "We're just fundamentally un-serious about spending. As long as you got a blank check you can't shrink government.”

• Rep. Ralph Norman of South Carolina: “It's the opposite of what the DOGE Commission is trying to do. So, am I voting for it? No, I'm not.”

• Rep. Michael Cloud of Texas: “Word is the CR vote will be today at 5pm, which is 1,345 minutes after the text was released. There are 1,547 pages in the bill. That's less than 1 minute per page of the CR text.”

• Elon Musk: “Ever seen a bigger piece of pork?”

Then Trump stepped in: Following the online firestorm, the president-elect released a statement opposing the current plan and suggesting his first priority is increasing the debt limit, which hasn’t been part of negotiations.

• Trump’s reasoning? Negotiating the debt limit during the Biden administration would rob Democrats of leverage once he takes office.

• In a joint statement with Vice President-elect J.D. Vance, Trump said: “Republicans want to support our farmers, pay for disaster relief, and set our country up for success in 2025. The only way to do that is with a temporary funding bill WITHOUT DEMOCRAT GIVEAWAYS combined with an increase in the debt ceiling.”

Back to the drawing board: The stopgap blowback scuttled a vote that was expected to place yesterday.

• The deadline to approve spending to avert a government shutdown is Friday.

Context: The GOP’s narrow majority in the House continues to hamstring many of the party’s efforts.

• Johnson said earlier this week the stopgap measure was initially intended to be “very simple, very clean," but a "couple of intervening things" occurred.

• Republicans will enter January with just a five-seat majority, the slimmest margin of control since the 1960s.

The business world is excited about what a new Trump administration could mean for the economy. (Axios)

A new survey from Teneo, a global advisory firm: 77% of CEOs expect the global economy to improve in early 2025, up from 45% who said the same in 2024.

• 64% of CEOs believe Trump’s policy shifts (tariffs, tax rollbacks, and deregulation) will positively impact their businesses in 2025.

• 80% expect a stronger U.S. dollar.

The trend: 91% of CEOs say they’re adjusting their environmental, social and governance initiatives in 2025 in response to ESG becoming a politically controversial issue.

• That’s up from 72% of CEOs in 2024.

• 23% of CEOs say they’re ramping down ESG initiatives in 2025, up from 8% a year prior.

Bubba’s Two Cents

When Trump first took office nearly a decade ago, his outsider status and provocative rhetoric scared off many top executives.

But as Trump’s image has become less radioactive, even longtime critics in the business world, like JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon have somewhat come around on the president-elect. The narrative of Trump as a scary, untouchable political figure has largely been defeated in the eyes of the public. That gives CEOs the green light to do business with the guy.

Amid an unprecedented immigration surge, Americans remain bullish on enforcing the border. (CNBC)

A new CNBC poll: 73% of Americans support militarizing the border, with 60% saying President-elect Trump should make it a priority next year.

Splashy headlines: Authorities have detained 16 migrants in connection with a violent home invasion in Aurora, Colorado, according to Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

• The detainees are suspected of being members or associates of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua.

• Conservatives, including President-elect Trump, have held Aurora up as an example of the consequences of lax immigration laws.

• Migrant-related crime has sparked discussions in cities like New York, where 58,000 criminal migrants reside, according to ICE data released last month.

Sanctuary policies: According to new data released by the Center for Immigration Studies, an immigration restrictionist think tank, approximately 8 million of the country’s estimated 14 million illegal immigrants reside in sanctuary jurisdictions.

Looking back: A new New York Times analysis found total net migration during the Biden administration is expected to exceed 8 million people, the largest immigration wave in U.S. history.

Bubba’s Two Cents

People throw around the word “mandate,” but recent surveys make it clear: with the spike in migration over the last few years, Trump has solid public support to take a hard stance on the border.