Charts & Remarks

Per a new analysis by New York Times data guru Nate Cohn, the GOP’s Electoral College advantage is shrinking and may eventual disappear. Democrats have frequently voiced frustration over candidates like Hillary Clinton securing the popular vote but still losing the presidency. It’s even led left-wingers to outright call for abolishing the Electoral College. Will they keep this same energy should the GOP’s edge vanish or flip to Democrats?

The latest New York Times/Siena College poll shows the biggest concern swing voters have about Donald Trump is his personality/temperament. As Free Press editor Oliver Wiseman noted in a new essay criticizing the former president’s campaign strategy, the list of recent Trump behaviors that could turn off undecided voters is extensive: promoting silver coins, using cryptocurrency for publicity stunts, associating with controversial figures like Laura Loomer and, of course, making inflammatory statements.

Kamala Harris’ personality/temperament is also her biggest liability with swing voters, per the Times/Siena College poll. While the results of the poll certainly tell us something about Trump and Harris’ individual weaknesses, they also reflect the “vibes-based” nature of the current political climate.

About 4 in 10 Americans think Kamala Harris' gender will hurt her chances in the election, up from 3 in 10 for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Meanwhile, the share of Americans who think Donald Trump’s gender will help him has increased 13% since 2016. These findings echo the hotly debated partisan gender divide, alongside Harris’ strategic avoidance of a campaign centered on identity.

Mike Rowe, the “Dirty Jobs” host and champion of old school American values, recently sat down for a wide-ranging interview with Reason editor at large Nick Gillespie. One of the topics the two men discussed was the decline of patriotism and the surge in pessimistic attitudes toward the nation’s past and future.

A new Pew Research Center report on 20 years of survey data finds public opinion has shifted dramatically on China, with the share of Americans who view the East Asian country unfavorably more than doubling since 2005. Other major shifts: a growing share of the country has negative views of both major parties, the percentage of Americans describing themselves as atheist, agnostic or “nothing in particular” rose from 12% in 2007 to 28%, support for same-sex marriage and marijuana has doubled over two decades.

In a new essay for The Atlantic, Oren Cass, a prominent conservative economist who endorses Trumpian policies like higher tariffs, says mainstream economic analysis fails to account for the benefits of tariffs, overlooks long-term effects and that “reasonable minds can disagree” as to whether “America should focus more on domestic or global prosperity, on the lowest possible prices or on long-term growth and industrial strength,” but that economists’ role isn’t to resolve this dilemma.

On X/Twitter, economist and University of Michigan professor Justin Wolfers took aim at one of Cass’ specific claims: That Donald Trump’s tariff on washing machines did not, ultimately, raise the price of the product. He also posted a critique of Cass’ entire piece.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest Consumer Expenditure report shows that, even when you factor in inflation, Americans are spending more money. According to an analysis by political blogger Kevin Drum, inflation-adjusted spending has increased by more than $2,000 per U.S. adult since 2019. Drum’s takeaway is that the spending spike is an indication the “economy is good and things are better for everyone,” presumably because it shows people have money to spare. However, voters remain pessimistic about the Biden-Harris economy, and some political analysts have argued it’s actually not in great shape.

The above chart - which cites data from a 2018 study by professor Mitchell Langbert - is making the rounds on X/Twitter and garnering the attention of politicians like Rep. Dan Crenshaw, R-Texas. On the one hand, it’s a pretty striking graphic. On the other hand, the fact that institutions are sharply left-leaning isn’t really news at this point. There are a number of studies and surveys across a range of fields and industries that echo Langbert’s findings.

What does feel new is the push from concerned conservatives, like Crenshaw, to try to address the imbalance. Case in point: The Texas Republican has introduced a bill to “strip funding from universities that demand DEI pledges and ideological loyalty statements.”