The Case for Selective Immigration

Immigrants reduce the U.S. deficit on average, but the impact varies widely based on age and education, per the latest data. (Manhattan Institute)

A new Manhattan Institute report: A high-skilled immigrant can reduce the debt by more than $1 million each over their lifetime, while low-skilled immigrants may increase it.

Case in point: An immigrant with a Bachelor's degree arriving between ages 25-34 contributes a net positive of $278,000 ($478,000 in taxes paid on average minus $303,000 in government benefits received) over their lifetime.

• On the other hand, an immigrant who didn’t graduate from high school and came to the U.S. between age 18 to 24 would pay just $143,000 in taxes on average and receive $332,000 in benefits.

• Due to their low earnings, that immigrant would be a net drain of -$315,000.

Zoom out: The average immigrant helps reduce the debt, but most immigrants increase it.

What’s behind this seeming contradiction: “The average immigrant is positive because immigrants with graduate degrees are extremely fiscally beneficial,” according to Manhattan Institute fellow Daniel Di Martino.

The impact: Because illegal immigrants tend to be the least-educated immigrants, the border crisis is projected to cost more than $1.15 trillion over the new illegal immigrants’ lifetimes, a figure that exceeds the United States’ annual defense budget.

• Selective legalization or mass deportation could reduce the deficit by $664 billion to $1.9 trillion.

• Ending refugee resettlement could save $9 billion annually, and eliminating green cards for parents of U.S. citizens could save $34 billion annually.

• Upskilling legal immigration, like requiring high school completion, could raise $5 billion annually.

Related: The national debt sits at a record-high $35.3 trillion and counting.

The vibes: The border crisis has fueled a surge in support for tougher immigration restrictions (including majority support for mass deportations), yet even 68% of Republicans back high-skilled immigration into the U.S.

Bubba’s Two Cents

Advocates of a humanitarian-based immigration policy may have good intentions, but that’s just so clearly not where the country is right now (and Biden’s border mismanagement is a big reason why). Moving forward, pro-immigration arguments will need to focus on how immigration benefits Americans, not on sentimental or idealistic appeals.