Thursday Edition: How Did School Choice Do?

Plus: Mississippi shows you don't have to break the bank to improve schools.

1. This Chart Shows How School Choice Fared on Election Day

While momentum for the school choice movement has been steadily gaining steam, it just suffered a bit of setback. (Reason Foundation)

Chart: Reason Foundation

The numbers: On Election Day, voters approved 7 out of 12 education-related statewide ballot measures, but all school choice measures failed, including:

  • Kentucky's Amendment 2 (only 35% supported it).

  • Nebraska's referendum overturning a private school scholarship program (57% supported the measure).

  • Colorado’s Amendment 80, which advocates say was hurt by unclear ballot language and poor coalition support.

Education policy expert Neal McKluskey on why school choice ballot initiatives often fail:

Referenda for school choice are always at a disadvantage because you're trying to take on entrenched, easily organized interests who defend the status quo and they can put a lot of money into defending the status quo and a lot of boots on the ground.

Counterpoint: Some school choice advocates say the 2024 election was by no means a complete rout once you start digging into local and state results.

  • In Texas, 14 anti-school choice legislators were replaced by pro-school choice Republicans in 2024 through primaries, runoffs and the general election.

  • GOP gains in South Carolina have secured a state Senate supermajority, increasing the likelihood of passing a universal educations savings program that could withstand legal challenges after the 2023 ESA law was struck down.

The broader trend: Since 2022, 146 pro-school choice bills have been introduced in 17 states.

  • Eight states enacted laws in 2023 to implement "universal school choice.”

  • From 2012 to 2022, public school enrollment for children ages 5 to 17 dropped by nearly 4 percentage points, from 90.7% to 87%.

  • Enrollment in private schools and charter schools each rose by 2 percentage points during the same period.

The vibes: Majority support for school choice programs cuts across party and demographic lines and has increased among all groups since 2020, per a RealClearOpinion Research poll from earlier this year.

  • Between 2020 and 2024, overall support has risen from 64% to 71%.

Bubba’s Two Cents

School choice advocates struggling to see their favored programs become law, despite their popularity, mirrors the disillusionment many Americans feel when widely supported ideas meet the buzzsaw that is the U.S. political process.

2. New Study Shows You Don’t Have to Break the Bank to Improve Public Schools

In an age when many education advocates stress massive budgets as essential to public school progress, the Magnolia State is providing a counterpoint. (The American Saga)

A new study by economist Noah Spencer: Despite being the poorest state in the U.S., Mississippi improved its fourth-grade reading rank from 49th in 2013 to 29th in 2019 (NAEP) through the Literacy-Based Promotion Act.

  • The LBPA featured an array of reforms and programs focused on phonics, pre-K expansion, teacher development and mandatory grade retention for struggling readers.

Efficiency: The LBPA cost a modest $15 million per year out of the state’s $7.6 billion budget.

Contrast: In the face of fierce opposition, the teachers union in Chicago, which already spends nearly double the national average per public school student, is currently demanding $1.1 billion in additional funding from the cash-strapped city government.

Big picture: The U.S. spends more than almost any other country on education.

Inflation-adjusted K-12 education costs have steadily increased nationwide.

Funding per student has increased dramatically, but it’s not being spent on teacher salaries, which (when you adjust for inflation) have plateaued for decades.

Administrative staff hiring is greatly outpacing growth of teachers and students.

3. Checking In on Infrastructure

Thanks partly to trillions in federal investment under President Biden, infrastructure has become a bit of a hot topic—so where do American roads and bridges stand now? (Construction Physics)

A new analysis by Institute for Progress fellow Brian Potter: Interstates are in pretty good shape, but roads, especially in urban areas, could use some work.

  • 80%+ of interstate mileage is rated "good" or "very good," with only 3% rated "poor" or worse, according to the International Roughness Index, the most widely used measurement of road quality.

  • Only 40% of non-interstate roads are rated "good" or better, and 20% are "poor" or worse, with urban roads generally in worse condition than rural ones.

(In the chart below, lower numbers indicate higher quality.)

Chart: Construction Physics

Zoom in: Over 60% of roads in San Francisco and Los Angeles are poor, compared to less than 10% in Atlanta and Minneapolis.

Chart: Construction Physics

Bridges: Since 2000, the share of U.S. bridges in “poor” condition has fallen from 15% to less than 7%.

Spending: The federal government spent $44.8 billion on infrastructure in 2023 and transferred an additional $81.5 billion to states.

  • In 2021, state and local governments spent $218.5 billion, making up 56% of all transportation and infrastructure spending.

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