Tuesday Edition: Young Voter Trends

The following are a few of the big themes we’re seeing with young Americans. (The Atlantic)

The kids are disillusioned: According to the long-running Monitoring the Future survey, in the early 1980s, 67% of high school seniors felt the U.S. system was the best in the world.

• By 2022, this number dropped to 27%—now only 1 in 4 teens agree with this sentiment.

• 40% of Gen Z see America’s Founders as “villains,” compared to just 10% of Boomers.

• In 2002, 23% of high school seniors felt it was hard to stay hopeful amid “terrible things” happening in the world; by 2019, this figure increased to 40%.

There’s a growing partisan gender divide: While young women are breaking heavily for Kamala Harris, their male counterparts have been trending away from the Democratic Party, and Donald Trump leads with young men in multiple recent polls.

Gen Z’s more politically engaged: In the 2022 midterm elections, 28.4% of young Gen Z voters (18-24) cast their ballots—up from the 23% of Millennials and 23.5% of Gen X who turned out in their comparable first midterms.

The centrality of sexual identity: According to Gallup, nearly 1 in 4 Gen Z adults identifies as LGBT.

Bubba’s Two Cents

In some ways, the kids are pretty different from their older cohorts (they’re more anxious, queerer and more likely to catastrophize about politics). In other ways, they’re just reflecting broader themes in politics — like the gender gap that’s growing between men and women regardless of age.

At a recent Soho Forum debate, The New York Times’ David Leonhardt and the Cato Institute’s John Early took opposing sides on the question of whether American living standards are falling. (Reason)

Standards are falling: Leonhardt’s argument was based on rising economic inequality, falling U.S. birth rates, stagnating life expectancy and surveys showing citizens are growing disillusioned with the American Dream.

• Leonhardt also cited data showing it’s getting harder for Americans to get ahead.

• Per a 2017 study, 92% of Americans born in 1940 out-earned their parents, while only 50% of those born in 1980 did.

The counter argument: Early disputed the idea that inequality is rising, arguing that official statistics overlook factors like in-kind benefits, tax credits, and transfer payments, which reduce inequality.

• According to Early, if you include all income sources, around 77% of today’s Americans earn what the top 20% earned in 1967.

• Early also noted that many people today have access to goods and services that were once only available to the wealthy, such as advanced healthcare, technology, and consumer electronics.'

• Also, living conditions in general—like access to electricity, indoor plumbing, and air conditioning—have improved significantly since past generations, contributing to an overall better standard of living.

Openly backing Donald Trump won’t make you as much of a pariah: A growing list of top businessmen, superstar athletes, celebrities and comedians have pledged their support to the former president.

It’s okay for liberals to say some good things about Trump: Pundits like former CNN host Chris Cuomo and progressive journalist Cenk Uygur have praised Trump without triggering backlash from their anti-Trump followers.

• What Uygur said about Trump’s recent Joe Rogan podcast appearance: “It looks really good for Trump. You got to be honest about it. You know me, if it was a trainwreck, I would be very happy to tell you it was a trainwreck.”

• During a recent “Real Time w/Bill Maher” appearance, CNN commentator and former Obama adviser Van Jones suggested progressives had pushed former Democrats like Elon Musk into Trump’s arms.

• Jones: “If progressives have a politics that says all white people are racist, all men are toxic, and all billionaires are evil it’s kind of hard to keep them on your side.”

There’s a counter-narrative to the “If Trump wins, democracy is over” doomsaying: In a repeat of 2016, mainstream outlets are painting a grim picture of what a Trump win could bring, but this time around, perspectives are more mixed, with publications like Reason advocating for a calmer outlook on politics.

The vibes: The share of voters who say the upcoming election is the most important of their lives has dropped by 9 points since 2020, suggesting Americans aren’t as stressed about the outcome.

The latest: Comedian Tony Hinchcliffe’s jokes about Puerto Rico at a Trump rally on Sunday sparked outrage from critics like MSNBC host Mika Brzezinski, who worried that Americans have grown numb to the “MAGA” movement’s incendiary rhetoric.

Brzezinski:

Bubba’s Two Cents

Liberals, Never-Trumpers and even many conservatives have been appalled by Trump’s antics for nearly a decade. Some of that is justified, and much of it has been overcooked. As my former boss, Axios CEO Jim VandeHei wrote the other day, “Democrats admit they tend to be hand-wringing, bed-wetting, doomsdayers.” I think many people don’t care for - or even about - Trump, but they see him as a “a walking, talking middle finger” as CNN's Jamal Simmons described him earlier this year. And giving a middle finger to the establishment institutions is worthy of overlooking some…unsavory… elements of Trump, especially a decade into his relevance as a political leader.