Wednesday Edition: El Salvador's Crime Miracle

El Salvador’s turnaround under President Nayib Bukele has been stunning to witness. (Gallup)

The latest Gallup Global Safety report: A record-high 88% of El Salvadorans feel safe walking alone at night where they live.

• For comparison’s sake, just 72% of Americans say the same about their country.

• Torn by gang warfare, El Salvador had the highest murder rate in the world in 2015, but Bukele’s iron-handed policies have led to a 92% decrease in homicides.

• The Central American nation now ranks among Gallup’s “most safe” countries in the world and boasts one of the lowest homicide rates in the western hemisphere.

Related: While the Bukele administration’s first priority has been stabilizing the crime rate, the country’s already made some progress on the economy.

• Before Bukele’s presidency, Salvadorans were handing over 3% of the country's GDP to gangs, according to a study by the central bank and UN Development Programme.

• According to the same study, fear of gang violence also kept people from working, resulting in lost income equivalent to nearly 16% of GDP.

Will Freeman, a fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations:

Are weight-loss drugs the answer to America’s obesity problem, which new research shows is just getting worse? (AP)

The latest: The rate of severe obesity increased from nearly 8% in 2013-2014 to about 10% in the most recent CDC survey.

• Compared to men, women are almost twice as likely to be severely obese.

• Approximately 40% of Americans were obese as of a 2021-2023 survey.

• Obesity rates vary by education level: 32% of college graduates reported obesity, compared to 45% among those without degrees.

Related: About 15 million Americans, or 6% of adults, are currently prescribed GLP-1 weight-loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy, according to KFF.

• JP Morgan Research predicts the market for weight-loss treatments could reach $100 billion by 2030, serving 30 million Americans.

• Between 2022 and 2024, women's clothing purchases in smaller sizes (XXS, XS, and S) increased by 12%, while larger sizes (L, XL, XXL) declined by 11%.

• Users of weight-loss drugs purchased about 8% less food between 2022 and 2023, according to JP Morgan Research.

The controversy: Lars Jørgensen, the CEO of Ozempic and Wegovy producer Novo Nordisk, was on the hot seat this week as senators questioned why the U.S. pays much higher prices for weight-loss drugs than other countries.

• Americans shell out $969 for Ozempic and $1,349 for Wegovy per month for drugs that cost just $59 and $137 in Germany, respectively.

• Jørgensen cited research and development costs and U.S. healthcare complexities but didn't directly address the price gap.

Bubba’s Two Cents

I think health and nutrition are going to take center stage in the very near future, and I don’t think I’m alone in thinking this based on some conversations I’ve had with friends and smart people. Whatever the case, I think it’s clear that the food industry has not been optimizing for quality or health, and there’s already a bit of a movement rising up in reaction (see RFK Jr.’s big emphasis on health). The farming and food industries and their regulator, the FDA, have led us down the current path, but I’m wondering if (or when) mass consumers decide we need a radical change.

P.S.: Of course, pharma has developed a trendy, synthetic solution to weight loss. The jury’s still out on whether there will be any long-term side effects.

Mike Johnson’s rise to House speaker was heralded as a win for anti-establishment conservatives, but MAGA supporters now see him as even more entrenched in the "swamp" than his predecessor. (WaPo)

Then: Following the ousting of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy last year, MAGA Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida celebrated Johnson’s election as a “great moment for the House” saying, “The swamp is on the run.”

• Gaetz: “If you don’t think that moving from Kevin McCarthy to MAGA Mike Johnson shows ascendance of this movement and where the power in the Republican Party truly lies, then you’re not paying attention.”

• One of the main reasons Gaetz and other conservative hardliners gave for booting McCarthy was the California Republican’s reliance on Democrats to pass a government funding deal.

Now: Johnson has had to rely on Democrats to get major spending deals across the line on five separate occasions — and he’s about to do it again with a bipartisan plan to avert a government shutdown.

• After a six-month funding plan from the House Freedom Caucus was rejected by 14 Republicans, Johnson was forced into negotiating with top Democrats to pass a short-term stopgap known as a continuing resolution, or C.R.

• Conservatives, including Gaetz, are now mad the C.R. wasn’t paired with the SAVE Act, which requires prospective voters in federal elections to prove they are U.S. citizens.

Bubba’s Two Cents

It’s easy to say you’re going to fight the establishment. But more important is what happens when you get power, and it’s time to govern. With a narrow majority in the House, the extent to which Johnson was going to be able to shake things up was always going to be limited.

The number: According to a Wall Street Journal analysis, homelessness in the U.S. is on track for another record high in 2024, showing a 10% increase from 2023. (WSJ)

• On the other hand, the latest FBI data shows violent crime fell an estimated 3% last year.

Context: There’s a narrative, especially among conservatives, that neglectful policies have pushed American towns and cities into a state of decay marked by rampant drug use, crime and vagrancy.

Donald Trump in 2017:

Bubba’s Two Cents

I don’t want to get into the weeds on the current debate over crime statistics except to say I think there are good reasons to conclude that violent crime, especially homicide, probably is down.

The other thing I’ll say is that Trump’s doomsaying vision of “American carnage” seems to resonate with a lot of people these days. And there is a case for it - rising homelessness and the opioid crisis aren’t figments of anyone’s imagination. Will voters buy the narrative in November?