Monday Edition: Crime Down, Lawlessness Up

Could rising disorder explain why Americans feel crime is going up even though the official stats say otherwise? (Manhattan Institute)

A new Manhattan Institute report: After a pandemic spike, violent crime in Chattanooga, Tennessee has fallen back to pre-2020 levels.

• But, combined with a shortage of police officers, the focused response that led to the drop in major crime has also “led to levels of disorder and petty crime that remain somewhat elevated, compared with the pre-2020 baseline.”

• 76% of Chattanooga residents consider crime and public safety to be major concerns and 51% of residents believe there is more violent crime in Chattanooga than before 2020.

• A possible explanation for the discrepancy between perceptions of safety and falling violent crime is the increase in disorder: calls related to homelessness rose from 77 in 2019 to 268 in 2023, and calls about trash/litter have increased by 53%, from 5,400 in 2019 to an expected 6,400 in 2024.

Zoom out: In a new essay, Manhattan Institute fellow Charles Fain Lehman makes the case that what’s happening in Chattanooga may explain current perceptions of crime (while surveys show Americans think crime is up, FBI crime data says it’s fallen in recent years).

Lehman:

Bubba’s Two Cents

Crime is highly political in America, with both sides sometimes ignoring data that doesn’t fit their narrative. Lehman’s excellent essay quantifies the prevailing sense (as reflected in polls) that America’s gotten more lawless, despite falling violent crime. This is a much wiser approach to the crime debate than engaging in what Lehman calls, “crime-data trutherism.”

Fighting for lower taxes might still be a winning campaign message. (Hot Air)

A new Public Opinion Strategies poll: 76% of voters believe now is a bad time to increase taxes, and only 5% think it's a good time.

• 72% think letting Donald Trump’s Tax Cuts and Job Acts expire in 2025 would be a tax hike.

The cons: Should Congress let the TCJA expire, a single parent earning $30,000 could see a $1,000+ annual tax increase, and a family of four earning $75,000 could face an increase of over $1,500.

• We could also see reduced business investment and consumer spending from higher tax rates, which would increase across various brackets.

The pros: Getting rid of the TCJA, according to the Congressional Budget Office, could reduce deficits by reversing its projected $1.3 trillion increase in the primary deficit and $1.9 trillion debt impact over 10 years.

• According to a Brookings Institution analysis, most of the tax cuts benefit high-income households, with 44% of the pass-through provisions favoring those earning above $1 million.

• The TCJA's effect on long-term economic growth is projected to be small, with GDP increasing only by 0.5% by 2028.

Related: Per a Morning Consult poll released earlier this month, decreasing the federal income tax rate enjoys +41 net support among voters.

• And there’s even +12 net support for reducing the corporate tax rate.

Bubba’s Two Cents

It’s been said that the traditional small government and tax cuts GOP perspective has been left out in the cold. The campaign messaging theme from both candidates seems to be, “how much stuff can we promise voters?” Whether it’s caps on drug prices, raising the minimum wage, expanding the child tax credit or subsidies for first-time homebuyers, these electoral goodies tend to be pretty popular. But the Public Opinion Strategies survey, along with the mostly favorable response to Trump’s tax cut proposals, suggests there are some elements of a fiscal conservative view that still resonate with voters.

Kamala Harris’ friendship with the businesswoman Laurene Powell Jobs might be a case study in institutional media bias. (Ink Stained Wretches)

The latest: The Jones-Harris connection is explored in a recent New York Times essay.

• According to The Times, Powell Jobs has become one of the vice president’s “most essential confidantes,” working “behind the scenes” and quietly contributing “millions of dollars to an organization backing Ms. Harris, according to three people briefed on the gifts.”

• One factor that gets somewhat downplayed in the Times’ piece: Powell Jobs’ ownership of The Atlantic.

• What The Times completely fails to mention: Powell Jobs’ investment in Axios (where I was one of the first employees) and her funding of Courier Newsroom, a controversial network founded by Democratic Party operatives and which has been accused of pushing “hyperlocal partisan propaganda."

Ink Stained Wretches co-host Eliana Johnson:

Bubba’s Two Cents

A recent study found that just 3.4% of American journalists identify as Republican. With few exceptions, the biggest, most influential corporate outlets lean left. This all drives home the fact that media bias is fundamentally an institutional problem. The upshot is that, while calling out individual instances of bias, hypocrisy and double standards is important, the real key to fixing the problem is finding a way to change how the game is played. And that’s easier said than done.