This Should Be a Very Winnable Race for Trump

Conditions on the ground suggest Donald Trump should be running far ahead of Kamala Harris, but that’s not what’s happening. (The Free Press)

A new Gallup analysis: For the first time in decades, more Americans identify as Republicans or Republican-leaners (48%) than Democrats or Dem-leaners (45%).

Why this is a big deal: As Gallup senior editor Jeffrey Jones noted, “Party affiliation and voting are strongly predictive of individuals’ vote choices, with the vast majority of identifiers and leaners voting for the candidate of their preferred party.”

• In years when they have a larger-than-usual party ID edge - 1992, 1996, 2008, 2012 and 2020 - Dems won.

• In years when the advantage was smaller - 2000, 2004 - Republicans took the White House.

An eye-popping statistic: When it comes to Gallup’s “key measures” of the election environment - things like presidential job approval, economic confidence and which party Americans trust more to handle the country’s top issues - Democrats hold the advantage on exactly zero.

• Republicans, on the other hand, own a whopping 8 out of 10 of these categories.

2024: Despite the favorable environment, Trump is far from blowing Kamala Harris out of the water like you might expect.

• In fact, most forecasts say the race is a toss-up, with maybe a slight edge for Kamala.

What’s the deal? In a new essay, Free Press editor Oliver Wiseman argues that, while friendly media coverage for Harris may be a factor, ultimately Trump’s campaign strategy is the main reason he’s not handily beating his opponent.

• According to Wiseman, Trump’s campaign missteps include promoting silver coins, using cryptocurrency for publicity stunts, associating with controversial figures like Laura Loomer, making inflammatory statements and allowing Harris to rebrand without a focused critique of her record.

Wiseman: